This review is a continuation of the review posted on 9th September.
Since March, Bitcoin is continuously going up, making 150% from the monthly pivot point which formed in March/April. Bitcoin is also very close to ATH.
It is the most interesting moment of the rally: will it break the ATH or not?
Instead of analyzing the current BTC condition let’s answer another question:
What kind of PA we would like to see, which will make us 90% confident that BTC WILL break ATH?
It is up to market makers to decide the future of BTC. We (at least me) are not the market makers, hence we need to seek for the trails which will lead to the conclusion:
Yes, Market Makers want to break the ATH.
What trails that would be ?
Not making any lower lows. No matter how scary the future daily or weekly red can candles may be – BTC cannot close the month below the current Month Open which is 13.8k ish. There is nothing worse than a month ending with a shooting star.
Making equal highs (tweezer tops). Equal highs are a 90% probable target during the bull run.
Only when the price is strongly reversing the equal tops are treated as “a level being defended”. Otherwise, for continuation, they are pointing the direction – up.
Making a retrace close to the ATH is healthy… unless it doesn’t make a lower low. This is exactly we want to see.
Breaking of the previous highs with confidence. The price cannot just tap the old high and significantly retrace. It should break the level with confidence.
Putting it altogether, this is how the PA should look like for the bullish scenario:
- Very safe assumption: I expect a retrace and consolidation until the end of the month.
- Going forward, the price may get as high as Jan’18 high but should not tap it. This step is not necessary as the price may retrace from here.
- The target for the retrace would be June’19 high. Dips to the Red zone are healthy.
- The weeklies and this monthly candle cannot close in the Red zone. That would mean a month ending with a shooting star.
- A bounce from the June’19 high should occur, preferably after a consolidation. This should lead to a new higher high pushing the price to 18k levels.
I expect a solid rejection from 18k-18.2 levels before breaking ATH. Until then let’s see how the next week pans out.