This is the last review of the price action in November. It is being done one day before the month closes.
As of creating this review, BTC has reached the -1 level (18274). Simultaneously, the ATH has not been tested yet on any of the markets: Binance, Bitmex, and Kraken. This is a significant fact.
Following chart shows the monthly FIB. This is the same FIB posted in my first review from Sept. 11, 2020.
The FIB starts at level (A) and ends at level (B). Level (C) is a pivot point and Optimal Trade Entry also called Golden Pocket. Level (D) is the -1 level of the FIB. It is the level for the full symmetrical swing which basically means that the price has made the same way from (B) to (D) as from (A) to (B).
The -1 level of the FIB most often closes a market cycle. Most often price rejects from there and consolidates.
The -1 level of the FIB is also confluent with an $18k level which is important for Market Makers.
The following chart is a close-up of the current high on the weekly chart.
The week has still not finished yet however chances that suddenly BTC will pop within the next few hours are minimal and it is very likely that the weekly will close like this.
The current week is the first week that will finish in red in the last 8 weeks! This is a bull run itself.
Going forward there are two scenarios which are most likely to happen:
1. BTC will go above the ATH and hardly reject from there. What happens next is very important. If, after the rejection, BTC will consolidate around the Consolidation Area then it may get back to the ATH in a few weeks eventually breaking it.
2. BTC will not breach ATH, decline slowly to the Consolidation Area, and then pump. This is even a better scenario as the ATH would not be tested.
One way or the other I expect a retracement during the upcoming weeks.
Why would the retracement be healthy?
BTC has made a rally to the ATH leaving many altcoins behind. Even the recent ETH and XRP pumps have not brought the price anywhere near to their ATHs.
It was the case in the past that BTC retracing after the pump allowed for alts to reach new levels. Starting from the major alts like XRP, BCH to the low cap coins.
I would like to see this happening in the coming weeks.
Let’s consider the current situation of the major alts. Top five alts sorted by the market cap (BTC included):
ETH: current price – $550 ish, ATH is $1400 ish.
XRP: current price – $0.6 ish, ATH $3.4 ish
BCH: current price – $280 ish, ATH is $3900 ish.
LTC: current price – $78 ish, ATH is $380 ish.
There is a lot of money needed to bring them to the ATH levels and this money will need to be coming from BTC.
HyperTrader Market Screener volumes observation
I haven’t checked the Total Market Cap for a year or so. The Total Market Capitalization numbers are very interesting.
On 8/01/2018 the total market cap made the ATH at $828b. The daily volume at that time oscillated between $30-$50b. On 5/01/2018 the daily volume was very high – $67b. Three days later the ATH was made and the market cap started to decline.
On 27/11/2020 the total market cap was $576b. But the daily volume is $270b!
Generally, during the BTC run in November, the daily volumes oscillated around $100-$140b. From 23/11 until today we observe daily volumes significantly higher and above $200b. reaching even to $290b!
At the same time, BTC has made current highs.
This would imply that a high is in play. Is this a high for BTC only or for the whole market? Following weeks will show.
- Overall the bull run has not ended yet in my opinion. We are just making a stop before another leg up.
- If BTC declines and consolidates then it will be the opportunity for alts to pump.
- The money should flow from BTC to the high cap alts and then to low cap alts and then back to BTC pushing it higher.
- The daily volumes for the past week were around twice as high as during the first half of November. This would imply that the top is in. At least a local top.