Nov 9, 2020: Future Outlook on Bitcoin

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Since March, Bitcoin is continually going up, breaking several critical resistances on the way. This week brought a +20% range so far, and the week has not ended yet. Let’s take a look at the monthly perspective.

Every timeframe behaves the same and creates order blocks, areas of support, and resistance. Pic.1 shows how a monthly order block was defended. The current price action is a result of this.

The image is a zoom-in of the latest price action. A quick FIB reveals that the price reached the ICT’s Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) or Golden Pocket as others call it, and pumped from there.

The OTE level is pointed with the arrow (1). Usually, after reaching the FIB’s -1 level, the price rejects significantly as the cycle is completed. The -1 level is marked with an arrow (2). It is clear that there was no reaction to this level, and this indicates we are in a more significant market cycle, which might be pushing the price higher.

Based on this, I think BTC has not yet reached its bullish target. The following chart shows another FIB analysis.

The arrow (1) points to level 0.618, which is in the OTE range. It is also confluent with the top of the monthly bullish OB.

Arrows (2) and (3) point to the levels where the price has bounced off. They are confluent with the FIB levels: 0.235 and 0 (top of the FIB).

Arrow (4) points to the level we are at now. The -0.62 level is the last stand before the full symmetrical swing (the -1 level of the FIB) and is usually a strong resistance. Sometimes it is a terminus for a bull market cycle, and the market ends up with the reversal when reaching this level.

Conclusion

The week end at a monthly level brings in some room for indecision.

Next week, for the bullish scenario, I would not want to see a break the month open. We need to see similar PAs like around arrows (2) & (3) where the consecutive monthly lows were higher.

Should the MO get broken, we may see a slow down of the run, and the price may get as low as the (0) level of the FIB.

Short upper wicks indicate that there was no solid rejection so far. In case we are at the swing high now, then later, it will be easier to break a short upper wick than a long one when going up.

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